Active scenario model · Hormuz
Scenario Model · Sample
US-Iran Conflict · Hormuz Escalation Paths
Horizon: 90 days
Scenario A
De-escalation Path
Stradyn Probability
30%
Container ships released. Ceasefire framework holds. Markets rally. Brent retreats to $92-95. Lloyd's war-risk pricing eases.
Winners: EU manufacturers · Airlines · EM importers | Watch: Iran compliance
Scenario B · Base Case
Limited Re-engagement
Stradyn Probability
45%
Current condition persists. Sporadic vessel incidents. Iran proxy activity elevated. Brent holds $100-110. Maritime insurance capacity-constrained.
Winners: US energy · Gulf sovereigns · Defense | Losers: Asian exporters · EM currencies
Scenario C · Tail Risk
Full Hormuz Closure
Stradyn Probability
25%
Iran executes full Strait closure. Brent spikes to $130-150. Global shipping crisis. Semiconductor, chemical, agricultural supply chains disrupted. EU recession probability exceeds 60%.
Winners: Commodity traders · LNG spot · Alt energy | Losers: Nearly all import-dependent economies
Stradyn Recommendation — Position planning should stress-test against Scenario B as base case. The 25% tail risk of full closure warrants contingency sourcing reviews for any inputs transiting the Gulf.
Forecasting.
What happens next.
Scenarios & Forecasts is Stradyn's forward-looking product. It extends interpretation into structured prediction — building probability-weighted scenario models for active geopolitical risk vectors with explicit horizon timeframes and decision implications.
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Active scenario models
US-Iran Conflict · HormuzCritical
China Strategic Posture · GulfHigh
EU Energy Security TransitionHigh
EM Currency Pressure · AsiaElevated
Global Supply Chain ReroutingElevated