Tier III · Forecasting · $5,000/mo

What happens
next.

Probability-weighted scenario modeling across active geopolitical risk vectors — structured to answer the one question that matters: what is the range of likely outcomes, and when.

Active scenario model · Hormuz
Scenario Model · Sample
US-Iran Conflict · Hormuz Escalation Paths
Horizon: 90 days
Scenario A
De-escalation Path
Stradyn Probability
30%

Container ships released. Ceasefire framework holds. Markets rally. Brent retreats to $92-95. Lloyd's war-risk pricing eases.

Winners: EU manufacturers · Airlines · EM importers  |  Watch: Iran compliance
Scenario B · Base Case
Limited Re-engagement
Stradyn Probability
45%

Current condition persists. Sporadic vessel incidents. Iran proxy activity elevated. Brent holds $100-110. Maritime insurance capacity-constrained.

Winners: US energy · Gulf sovereigns · Defense  |  Losers: Asian exporters · EM currencies
Scenario C · Tail Risk
Full Hormuz Closure
Stradyn Probability
25%

Iran executes full Strait closure. Brent spikes to $130-150. Global shipping crisis. Semiconductor, chemical, agricultural supply chains disrupted. EU recession probability exceeds 60%.

Winners: Commodity traders · LNG spot · Alt energy  |  Losers: Nearly all import-dependent economies
Stradyn Recommendation — Position planning should stress-test against Scenario B as base case. The 25% tail risk of full closure warrants contingency sourcing reviews for any inputs transiting the Gulf.

Forecasting.
What happens next.

The Strategic Intelligence Layer is Stradyn's forecasting product. It extends interpretation into structured prediction — building probability-weighted scenario models for active geopolitical risk vectors with explicit horizon timeframes and decision implications.

  • Horizon Scenarios for all active critical-level risk vectors
  • Probability-weighted branch structure with Stradyn Probability
  • Winner/loser mapping per scenario branch
  • Sector Exposure Map · 64-cell weekly matrix
  • Stradyn Probability frames with market-implied comparison
  • Core Platform and Signal Brief included
Access Layer · $5,000/mo
Active scenario models
US-Iran Conflict · HormuzCritical
China Strategic Posture · GulfHigh
EU Energy Security TransitionHigh
EM Currency Pressure · AsiaElevated
Global Supply Chain ReroutingElevated