The Stradyn Standard · Decision Test

How we produce
decision-ready intelligence.

Every Stradyn output passes a single test before publication. It is the north star of the analytical process, the yardstick applied to every Intelligence Note, every Weekly Synthesis, every Probability Frame, every Horizon Scenario.

The Decision Test
Applied to every output
"Does this change what the client does in the next 24–90 days?"

Pure informational updates fail the test. "Risk is elevated" fails the test. Clean summaries fail the test. Only outputs that name what repositions — for whom, in what direction, on what horizon — pass. Everything that leaves Stradyn clears this bar.

The Signal Framework
Phase I
Observation
Continuous monitoring of geopolitical vectors across every region. Events are flagged by signal weight — not media volume. A quiet regulatory change in a critical supplier state may carry more decision relevance than a front-page conflict story.
Output: Signal Brief
Phase II
Interpretation
Observed signals are tagged by decision class — capital allocation, operational positioning, timing, or strategic posture — and framed around named exposures. Interpretation answers: what specifically repositions, for whom, on what horizon.
Output: Intelligence Note
Phase III
Modelling
Scenario construction with probability-weighted outcomes. Each branch carries an explicit repositioning implication — not just "here is what could happen" but "if this branch unfolds, here is what should have repositioned, by when." Modelling is built on historical analogy, structural analysis, and stated actor incentives.
Output: Horizon Report
Phase IV
Integration
Direct integration of intelligence into client decision architecture. Embedded support, custom exposure mapping, real-time escalation. Integration is where decision infrastructure becomes decision behavior — the final mile from analysis to action.
Output: Advisory Dispatch

Analytical standards.
What we commit to.

Every Stradyn output adheres to the same analytical standards — regardless of tier, format, or subject matter. These are not aspirations. They are institutional commitments.

Decision relevance, not informational completeness

We do not publish to inform. We publish to reposition. Every note, every synthesis, every scenario is built backward from a decision implication — not forward from a news development. If an output does not change what a reader does, it does not ship.

Calibrated probability, not hedged language

We assign probability ranges to scenario outcomes. We compare against market-implied probabilities where they exist. We do not use "it remains to be seen" or "observers are divided." We take analytical positions, explain our reasoning, and accept being graded when forecasts resolve.

Quantified directional conviction

Every assessment contains at least one quantified directional claim — a probability range, a price corridor, a timeline, a threshold. "Risk is elevated" is not an assessment. "60-70% probability Brent holds above $100 through June, compressing reroute decisions for Asia-bound crude into the next 10 trading days" is.

Decision-class taxonomy

Every Intelligence Note carries an explicit tag: capital allocation, operational positioning, timing, or strategic posture. This is not decoration. It is the first question every analyst asks before drafting — what class of decision does this actually affect?

Read the full Stradyn Probability methodology →

Output artifacts
Signal Brief
Daily decision-relevant summary of significant geopolitical developments — each tagged by decision class and horizon.
Intelligence Note
Calibrated interpretation with explicit decision class, horizon, and repositioning frame — the core artifact of the Tier II working surface.
Horizon Report
Probability-weighted scenario model — each branch carries an explicit repositioning implication on a named horizon.
Advisory Dispatch
Custom decision support for Enterprise Advisory subscribers — tailored to specific exposure, decision, or inflection.
The Stradyn Scorecard

We grade ourselves publicly.

Every Stradyn Probability resolves on a named date against defined criteria. Every resolution is graded — correct, partial, or miss — and recorded. The record is public.

Calibration is not a claim. It is a disciplined practice, and the only honest way to demonstrate it is to show the track record — including the misses.

The Good Judgment Project model, applied to geopolitical intelligence.

Live record · Year to date
Resolved forecasts —
Correct —
Partial —
Miss —
Hit rate —
The Scorecard populates as Stradyn Probabilities resolve and are graded against their criteria. Track record begins with v6 launch; forecasts published prior are not retroactively counted.